Aston Villa future is bleak as relegation looms

In the history of the Premier League only seven original teams have avoided relegation.
In a month or so, that number will drop to six.
It’s been a long time since Aston Villa did anything to remind the world that in the first Premier League season, 1992-93, it led the way with six games to go and eventually finished second to Manchester United. The next season it finished 10th, and a year later an 18th-place finish did not result in relegation only because there were 22 teams at the time. Since then the Premier League has consisted of 20 teams, and the other original members not to be relegated are Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur.
Manchester City was relegated twice prior to its purchase in 2008 by current owners City Football Group. High-profile players have come and gone, managers have been hired and fired, and it has won two league titles while stumbling in Europe, but never has it again come close to the drop. Big money doesn’t ensure superiority but it can buy security, which Villa severely lacks.
When Aston Villa officially goes down, it will do so
emphatically. In last place and with just 16 points (three wins, seven ties, 16 losses) in 26 matches, it is eight points shy of a 17th-place finish that would retain Premier League status. Villa is doing so poorly it could post one of the worst records in league history.
It has surpassed the miserable performances of Derby County (11 points in the 2007-08 season) and Sunderland (15 points in 2005-06), but the sad showings of Portsmouth (19 points/2009-10), Watford (24 points/1999-2000), and Queens Park Rangers (25 points/2012-13) are not unattainable.
American owner Randy Lerner bought Villa in 2006 for 62.6 million pounds (about $118 million) and gained a measure of support when the team finished sixth in three consecutive seasons (2007-08, 2008-09, 2009-10). But it flirted with relegation the last four seasons, during which several attempted sales fell through and a disgruntled fan base grew more and more angry.
Lerner’s tainted ownership of the Cleveland Browns, passed onto him by his late father Al Lerner, prompted the sale of that team four years ago. The clamor for him to sell off Villa is deafening in and around Birmingham, the second-most populous city in England (1.02 million).
Villa narrowly escaped relegation last season by finishing 17th, just three points clear of the drop zone. It reached the FA Cup final, in which Arsenal inflicted a 4-0 defeat, but goodwill stemming from that accomplishment quickly dissipated during the summer when two of its best players, Fabian Delph and Christian Benteke, jumped ship to Manchester City and Liverpool, respectively. (Those teams meet in the League Cup final a week from Sunday.)
Lerner isn’t the only American under fire at Villa. CEO Tom Fox, a Miami University graduate who worked five years at Arsenal before moving to Villa in August, 2014, takes a lot of blame for the team’s troubles. A string of rough games has cost keeper Brad Guzan his starting spot; his heroic work in past seasons had helped Villa escape the drop and earned great praise.
Guzan’s reputation in England and Europe is sufficiently high that he would draw interest from other teams and MLS is always a possibility, though goalkeepers are among the lowest-paid players in the domestic league. Some players have a clause in their contracts that frees them if the team is relegated, others would be obligated to take a pay cut if they aren’t transferred.
Relegation for a storied club like Villa, which since its formation in 1874 has won seven titles in the top flight, seven FA Cups, and captured the 1982 European Cup (now Champions League), is foreboding enough. Its fans can also rightly be concerned about what happens if the team cannot quickly regain Premier League status and possibly slides even further, out of the League Championship all the way to League One (third division).
No club as big as Villa is currently in that division yet among its ranks are Barnsley, Blackpool, Bradford City, Burnley, Coventry City, Oldham Athletic, Sheffield United and Swindon Town, all former Premier League members. None of those teams have a history as rich as that of Aston Villa, but other teams with great histories, such as Leeds United and Sheffield Wednesday, dropped as low as League One before moving back up. Newcastle United has twice finished second in the Premier League but was relegated once and could be again this spring.
Most relegated teams receive “parachute payments” from the Premier League to ease the financial shock induced by the drop, and Villa would be paid about 64 million pounds (about $92 million) over the next four seasons if it was unable to move back into the top tier. But it would not receive a significant portion of the new TV deal that kicks in next season. That deal will be worth about 130 million pounds ($187 million) per team. Domestic plus international rights will pay the league about 8.5 billion pounds ($12.24 billion).
Villa has changed managers three times in the past year. Last October, Remi Garde replaced Tim Sherwood, who had taken over from Paul Lambert in February 2015. On and off the field, Villa has lacked stability for several years. Relegated teams often go right back up to the Premier League after a season or two, but who will supply the commitment and resources if Lerner is unable to sell?
There is still time for a miracle recovery. Last year, current leader Leicester City escaped relegation by winning seven of its last nine games.
A managerial merry-go-round, shaky ownership, and a possible exodus of players casts a long, deep shadow over a team with a storied history and a very bleak future.